Panic selling by landlords could turn slump into rout
The dollar is a victim of globalization
Stop The Fed Before It's Too Late
Bennet Sedacca Jun 02, 2008 2:15 pm
“Our understanding of the best practice in monetary policy evolved during Alan Greenspan's tenure at the Federal Reserve, and it will continue to evolve in the future.”
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
About ten days ago, I was interviewed on Fox Business News as a part of a Minyanville daily Fox News ritual. The first question I was asked was "What inning of the credit crisis do you think we are in?" I have to confess that the answer I gave was one that I heard one morning on the way to the office. A British economist on Bloomberg Radio stated that "We have heard the National Anthem but we haven’t had the Seventh Inning Stretch." I have to admit that I couldn’t have said it better myself.
On a recent business trip to New York City and Greenwich, I had the pleasure of speaking with some of the brightest professionals in our industry. My biggest take away from the trip and meetings was that the over-40 crowd is concentrating mostly on the macro-economic or big picture. At Atlantic Advisors, that is where have always begun and let our big picture beliefs guide our asset allocation decisions and let other, more cyclical indicators such as investor sentiment, valuations, cyclicality and short interest influence actual portfolio positioning.
Another important takeaway was that the older and more experienced investors were the more concerned they were. After all, if you haven’t lived through a credit crisis, it's hard to fully appreciate what that unwinding of a credit crisis looks like. When we consider that the build-up of credit and derivatives during this past cycle is so unprecedented, the more difficult the unwind is likely to be.