CRIMES AND CORRUPTIONS OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER NEWS (mparent7777_1) wrote,
CRIMES AND CORRUPTIONS OF THE NEW WORLD ORDER NEWS
mparent7777_1

Gulf Coasters: Time to Leave

The storm is headed directly towards New Orleans and may may reach category 4 strength by the time it makes land fall.

Tropical Storm GUSTAV


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Hurricane Wind Speed Probability
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability

34-knot Wind Speed Probability
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability

Max Wind Speed Probability Table
Maximum Wind
Speed Probability


Warnings and 3-Day Cone
Warnings and
3-Day Cone


Warnings and 5-Day Cone
Warnings and
5-Day Cone

Experimental
Experimental Surface Wind Field
Warnings and
Surface Wind


Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule
Mariner's
1-2-3 Rule


Wind History
Wind
History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Click image to zoom in – Turn track off [Image of 5-day forecast of predicted track, and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.

NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error; track forecast errors in recent years were used to construct the areas of uncertainty for the first 3 days (solid white area) and for days 4 and 5 (white stippled area). These areas of uncertainty are formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The historical data indicate the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the outer uncertainty area about 60-70% of the time. There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

Note:  A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.

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