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New York Times Article on Nouriel Roubini as “Dr. Doom”

Nouriel Roubini | Aug 15, 2008
The New York Times has published a long article/profile about me – available online here – that appears in print on their glossy Sunday Magazine.

The article is a very friendly and sympathetic portrait of my views. I would take issue only with the characterization of myself as being a “perma-bear” or “perpetual pessimist”. For one thing I ended up a realist rather than a pessimist about the current economic and financial crisis; things are turning out even worse than I initially predicted.

Also, while very pessimistic about the U.S. and global financial outlook in the short run, I expect that the global economy can grow at a sustained rate in the medium term and that the integration of China, India and other emerging market economies in the global economy is a very important and positive trend over time. So, yes there is doom and gloom over the short term; but the medium term horizon will be brighter for the global economy if and when the mess of the current financial and economic crisis is fixed. Still, as i have recently argued - and as reported at the end of the New York Times article - this U.S. crisis may be the sign of the beginning of the long run decline of the American Empire.

Dr. Doom

Two years ago, Nouriel Roubini predicted the current economic crisis. Now he sees things becoming far worse.

BY STEPHEN MIHM

Published: August 15, 2008, New York Times Sunday Magazine

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« Texas Rep. Ron Paul continues to warn of the failing U.S. economy.
(Getty Images)

July 24, 2008 | From theTrumpet.com

“Time is short for making a course correction before this grand experiment in liberty goes into deep hibernation,” the U.S. Congress was told earlier this month. On July 9, Texas Rep. Ron Paul warned the House Financial Services Committee that “big events” were about to occur.

“… I have days, growing more frequent all the time, when I’m convinced the time is now upon us that some big events are about to occur,” he said. “These fast-approaching events … will affect all of us. They will not be limited to just some areas of our country. The world economy and political system will share in the chaos about to be unleashed” (emphasis ours throughout). Paul continued:

There are reasons to believe this coming crisis is different and bigger than the world has ever experienced. …

The financial crisis, still in its early stages, is apparent to everyone: gasoline prices over $4 a gallon; skyrocketing education and medical care costs; the collapse of the housing bubble; the bursting of the nasdaq bubble; stock markets plunging; unemployment rising; massive underemployment; excessive government debt; and unmanageable personal debt. Little doubt exists as to whether we’ll get stagflation. The question that will soon be asked is: When will the stagflation become an inflationary depression?

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July 22nd, 2008

The LA Times ran an editorial today that cuts to the heart of one of our issues that have Americans on edge; we sit in fascination as inflation has skyrocketed, and everything we buy has gone up in price, and it’s a strange world when a gallon of milk is sometimes more expensive than a gallon of gas.

In this economy, failure is an option

By Peter G. Gosselin, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
July 20, 2008

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy appears to be caught in a cycle of recurrent panic attacks. So many things have gone wrong, and so much anxiety has accumulated in the financial system, that nothing seems safe.

As a result, no sooner has one crisis seemed to recede than another has popped up, to be followed by another and still another.

* Nations with vast oil wealth gaining clout

*It costs what?! Calculating the CPI requires a lot of shopping around

*Americans may be losing faith in free markets

“We’ve gotten to that classic point in a financial crisis where it’s gone on for long enough we know there are losses. We just don’t know where they are,” said Joseph R. Mason, a financial economist at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge.

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Short-sellers bet on stock market crash

Julia Kollewe

* guardian.co.uk,
* Monday July 21, 2008

Investors across the world are betting more than one trillion dollars on a collapse in stock prices.

More than $1.4tn of equities worldwide are now on loan, about a third more than at the start of 2007, according to Bloomberg. Almost all of that is being used to speculate that shares will fall.

Fund managers made at least $1.4bn in July from betting against the troubled US mortgage groups Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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World-historic economic collapse

  • Jul. 19th, 2008 at 1:08 PM
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Thursday, July 17, 2008

Women And Children Last



Compelling confirmation that we're in the early phase of a world-historic economic collapse can be found in this fact: Our rulers are moving quickly to redistribute blame for the disaster from those who precipitated it to those who are seeking to protect themselves from it.


In the fashion of Stalin deflecting blame for the failure of central planning onto the backs of faceless "wreckers" or randomly selected "saboteurs," the Regime in Washington is literally preparing to criminalize the act of "talking down the economy."



If you're an investment broker caught speaking ill of the federal bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, or advising your clients to short those two federally supported deadbeat institutions, you could incur the wrath of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Under the Clap-for-Tinkerbell assumptions being imposed on the markets by the Regime, such actions quite likely will be designated a form of "market manipulation" -- what the SEC, in a July 13 press release timed to coincide with Commissar Paulson's bailout announcement, called "the intentional spread of false information intended to manipulate securities prices."

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Confidence falls in U.S. authorities' ability to ease financial panic

Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, Reuters

Published: Thursday, July 17, 2008

NEW YORK -- The nightmare scenario for U.S. economic authorities is here: Confidence in their ability to rescue the country from a housing-led financial panic is now at its lowest level since the crisis began.

This means losses for investors, already totalling nearly half a trillion dollars, could mount even further over the next few months, with implications for business investment and the overall health of the economy.

"You see a massive potential for financial meltdown on a global scale," said T.J. Marta, fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

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By Ian Welsh Friday July 18, 2008

The only nation that can destroy America is America, and never let it be said Americans don't have a can-do attitude.

I read this article by my old co-blogger Barry Ritholz and I laughed, and laughed and damn near cried:

There is a choice to be made: Either we regulate the Banks, or leave it to the vagaries of the free markets to punish those who trade with, or place their assets in the wrong institutions. But for God's sake, do not give us the worst of both worlds -- do not allow banks the freedom to make horrific but preventable mistakes (i.e., only lending money to those who can pay it back), but then expect the taxpayers to foot the trillion dollar bill.

That's not capitalism, its not socialism, its not regulation, and its sure as hell isn't what free markets are. Our language is insufficient to describe this hodge-podge system, other than to call it a random patchwork of quasi-capitalism, quadrennial-socialism, and politics as usual. Ideological idiocy is the only phrase I can muster that has any resonance with the daily insanity. 

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Anatomy of a Crash

  • Jul. 14th, 2008 at 9:26 AM
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The Fannie & Freddie episode demonstrates how stupid and dangerous it is to allow any company to operate under the assumption that it keeps the profits while the taxpayers take the losses.

Meta: this post can be considered the sequel (until there's a third) to the epic Your Economy is in Trouble When The Dollar In Your Hand Loses Value by the Day epic.

When we last left off with economic worries, the utmost concern at the time was the seemingly endless water torture trickle of the U.S. Dollar. A few months later and we're still relatively in the same spot - sideways trading becoming the norm since about March of this year. The housing market bubble is not done claiming victims just yet...

...in some ways we've only just begun.


Follow up:

Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) can trace their roots to The Great Depression and The New Deal. Fannie Mae was set up as a government sponsored monopoly with the expressed purpose of being an entity to provide liquidity (money) to the mortgage market. Fannie Mae made it possible for the American Dream of everyone having a home to be realized for returning soldiers from World War 2 and years onward. As it provided more and more mortgages and the total amount of backed debt grew, the entity was cut from the federal government in 1968 - spun off into its own company with a suggested government backing. To head off charges of monopoly, the government chartered Freddie Mac in 1970 to provide competition - again with the same suggested government backing.

Through their history, Fannie and Freddie have been held to somewhat of a higher standard than competing banks. In the housing boom of this decade, that translates to "they were actually held to a standard", when compared with other banks. In real terms, it meant that they did not have nearly as much exposure to the subprime loans (read: loans that should have never been made) and were thought, at least initially, to be somewhat safe from the bloodshed in the subprime markets.

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In a word --greed.

Commentary by Mark Gilbert

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- ``Granddad Benny, is it true that capitalism committed suicide?''

Granddad looked up from the fire he was stoking with bundles of 2006 and 2007 vintage mortgage-backed bonds. ``In a way, Joel, yes. In developed countries, people got too greedy, especially bankers, and everyone borrowed too much. In less developed countries, people racing to improve their living standards reawakened the slumbering inflation monster.''

Joel put down the stick he was using to scratch the dirt. ``Why did the Gigantic Global Bubble Burst of 2008 catch people unawares? Weren't there any warning signs, Granddad?''

``With hindsight, Joel, water should have set alarm bells ringing. Before the Giglobubu, wealthy people paid $15 per liter for Cape Grim bottled water from Tasmania, at a time when the Asian Development Bank estimated that 700 million people in Asia lacked access to clean water. Investment banks even started to invent securities betting that water shortages would arise. Even so, when the Water Wars started, the world wasn't prepared.

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Financial Collapse

  • Jul. 10th, 2008 at 9:48 AM
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Mad Money's Jim Cramer shares his market outlook.

Last Update: Tues. Jul. 8 2008 | 4:15 PM

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Kiss Your Fannie Goodbye


Fannie, Freddie stocks and bonds plummet

Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:04pm BST

By Al Yoon

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A firestorm of anxiety over the ability of U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get the capital they need to survive sent their debt and stocks plummeting on Thursday.

Stoking concerns, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said the two major U.S. mortgage finance companies were "insolvent" and may need a U.S. government bailout, according to Bloomberg News.

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Shares in both companies plunged to their lowest since 1991. At 10:25 a.m., shares of Freddie Mac were down $3.38, or 33 percent, to $6.88, while Fannie Mae's shares were off $3.43, or 22 percent, at $11.88.

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Mortgage Meltdown No Accident

  • Jun. 30th, 2008 at 3:35 PM
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American 'Meltdown' is the Reason for the Money Injection by Fortis

The Subprime Swindle


By Kai Wright

This article appeared in the July 14, 2008 edition of The Nation.
June 26, 2008

George Mitchell's wife, Lillian, took her last breath in the house she loved, on New Year's Day 2006. "Right there in that spot," says George, 77, nodding to the far end of his worn, floral-print couch. "I think the last words she spoke was my name."

"Yup," confirms his youngest daughter, Chandra Chavis. "I was trying to perform mouth-to-mouth resuscitation at the time." She points out the living room window to the small, sloping front yard and drive. "There was no address on the house, so I had to stop doing that to get the ambulance to come in." But Lillian's heart had seized, and Chandra knows there's not much she could have done anyway. She figures if even the trauma team at Atlanta's century-old public hospital couldn't revive her mom, she must have been long gone. "Nobody can bring you back if the Lord calls you," concludes an older daughter, Gwen Russell.

It was Lillian's tenacity that led the Mitchell family to Atlanta's Westwood neighborhood, in 1968. "She was determined," Chandra explains, "not to have her children in an apartment -- I know the story; I've heard it a million times -- so she found somebody, a real estate agent, and they came out and they looked in this neighborhood. I don't know what brought them to this part of town, 'cause at the time they were living in Dixon Hills" -- then an up-and-coming black neighborhood -- "but she decided she wanted a house, and this is where she found it."

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Hennecke Says U.S. Faces 'Hyperinflationary Depression'
Bloomberg Video

Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says (Update2)

By Zhang Shidong

Enlarge Image/Details

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should avoid the dollar and buy commodities, which is the ``best investment'' for this year, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers said at the opening of an investment club in Shanghai today. ``Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything including seeds.''

The U.S. currency has slipped 7.6 percent against the euro and 5.1 percent versus the yen this year as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. economic recession. Oil prices in New York have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold futures jumped 41 percent.

Rogers, who put his New York house on the market in 2006 and now lives in Singapore, said last October he planned to shift all his assets out of the dollar. He predicted last month the currency's decline would pause in the second quarter because it was overdone.

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2008-06-30 — ml-implode.com

By Aaron Krowne, IEHI Inc.; ML-Implode.com founder.

The economy and to a great extent the world today is run by would-be economic seers and prognosticators, probably more so than ever before in history. I say "would-be", however, because their track records are rather spotty. This contradiction should be no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to the plentiful (and well-deserved) criticism of the Fed's recent actions (and statements), but many have also noted that it seems the Fed and its economic peers and groupies never seem to "get it right". There is a structural problem here, I would say; I think it has something to do with the true objective of these people being political rather than predictive success.

The investment community, surprisingly, doesn't do much better, and I include in that the "contrarian" crowd -- and to some extent even the Austrians. This group has been preoccupied with an "inflation vs. deflation" debate for at least the last two years (myself among them), and it shows no signs of letting up. As I will argue below, I think there is now ample evidence to make the call one way or the other.

First, regarding prognostication, I want to share a little trick I use that works pretty well. All you do is look at the current picture -- putting aside at least for hypothetical purposes one's own pre-conceived ideas of the answer -- and make a genuine attempt to see the situation for what it is. By "current picture" I mean actual data, though one doesn't usually need to dig too deep into minutiae.

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Last Updated: 12:01am BST 28/06/2008



Barclays warns of a financial storm as Federal Reserve's credibility crumbles

US central bank accused of unleashing an inflation shock that will rock financial markets, reports Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".

"We're in a nasty environment," said Tim Bond, the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."

Barclays Capital said in its closely-watched Global Outlook that US headline inflation would hit 5.5pc by August and the Fed will have to raise interest rates six times by the end of next year to prevent a wage-spiral. If it hesitates, the bond markets will take matters into their own hands. "This is the first test for central banks in 30 years and they have fluffed it. They have zero credibility, and the Fed is negative if that's possible. It has lost all credibility," said Mr Bond.

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Update
Full story in English and pictures from papers...


Fortis is a large bank and insurer in the Netherlands and Belgium. It took over ABN Amro last year, together with RBS and another bank. Last Thursday, its share lost 17% because Fortis attracted foreign capital.

I was shocked when I read the following, which was brought out 4hours ago:

American 'meltdown' reason for money injection Fortis. 

28th of June, 9:10 

BRUSSELS/AMSTERDAM - Fortis expects a complete collapse of the US financial markets within a few days to weeks. That explains, according to Fortis, the series of interventions of last Thursday to retrieve € 8 billion. "We have been saved just in time. The situation in the US is much worse than we thought", says Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens. Fortis expects bankruptcies amongst 6000 American banks which have a small coverage currently. But also Citigroup, General Motors, there is starting a complete meltdown in the US"  

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June 24, 2008

Excerpt

‘[Our] United Nations sources report that there has been a sudden rush in requests for foreign exchange wire transfer requests from the New York City banks’.'The sudden demand for transferring funds abroad has resulted in a 24-hour to 48-hour processing delay due to the sheer volume of requests’. 

‘Foreign employees at the United Nations are transferring their money from accounts at the United Nations Federal Credit Union (UNFCU) and other New York City banks, both domestic and foreign-owned, and the move has been sudden’.

‘There has been no explanation for the sudden wire transfer activity, although the [US] rumor mill suggests fears of a sudden economic collapse and/or a US and Israeli military attack on Iran, which could touch off a wider regional conflict’.

The rumour mill was talking rubbish, illustrating how crass and inaccurate it usually is. The reason for the sudden surge in requests for foreign exchange wire transfer requests was that the country payees had at long last received their payments and were now transferring their funds out to their respective governments and central banks. 

link

Are we really ready for this financial storm?

  • Jun. 23rd, 2008 at 12:59 PM
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Why this superbear is a long way from bottom

IAIN MacWHIRTER
June 23 2008 

Comment | Read Comments (10)So, just how bad is this financial crisis going to get? Well, according to Bob Janjuah of the Royal Bank of Scotland: "A very nasty period is soon to be upon us. Be prepared." It's not like the RBS to go around making alarmist statements but it has warned of a "global equity and credit crash" this autumn. Morgan Stanley bank has forecast a "catastrophic event". The hedge fund guru John Paulson says global losses from the credit crisis, currently $300bn, may reach $1.3 trillion.

Yet only a few weeks ago, everyone in the City and Wall Street seemed to be saying that "the worst was over"; that the fundamentals were sound; and that once the banks had owned up to the full extent of their losses, then things would get back to normal.

Clearly, they haven't, as anyone who has tried to get a mortgage recently will have discovered. And with the oil price spike - which Gordon Brown is trying to flatten at the oil summit in Jeddah - there has been a switch of sentiment back to deepest gloom.

You think I'm exaggerating, don't you? Well, let me quote an e-mail I received at the weekend from Moneyweek Magazine. Under the heading "Bloodbath Britain" the magazine screams in bold type: "The UK is about to be battered by the biggest financial storm of our lifetimes." 

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